The recent rise in gold prices may not last, say experts
prices have been rising in the international markets and touched a five-month high last week. In 2017, gold has already seen a rise of 13-14 per cent. This trend was mirrored in the domestic market too, where the price for 10 gms gold touched Rs 29,425, though the increase has been around 6 per cent or so, due to a stronger rupee. Is this reason enough for investors to buy gold again? Given that it is Akshaya Tritiya next week, an occasion when it is considered auspicious to buy gold, is this a good time to add gold to your portfolio?
According to experts, while there may be a reversal in the fortunes of the yellow metal, it may not be sustainable. Hence, there is no need to stock up on gold investments. But if you have pared down your disposable gold investments, in the form of exchange-traded funds or gold bonds to zero, you could look at buying in dips from now on, but limit the purchase.
In the last couple of years, equity markets have been rising consistently whereas the sheen has gone off the yellow metal due to downward pressure on prices. “In the past six months, value buying has emerged at lower levels. Secondly, oil prices had also risen and in the last one month, geopolitical tensions seen people moving to gold. These three reasons are providing key support to gold prices,’’ says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.
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According to Kunj Basal – executive director and chief investment officer, Centrum Wealth Management, gold price rises whenever there is geopolitical instability because it is seen as the safest class to invest in. “That is what we are seeing even now and this rally is not sustainable. In the short-term, prices could remain slightly elevated due to Aksya Tritiya and wedding season demand in the domestic market. But after that they will continue to remain in the same range,’’ he says.
Since the inherent characteristic of gold as an investment class is the lack of income stream and a much higher chance of capital loss, one should not invest more than 5-10 per cent of one’s portfolio in gold says Prateek Pant, Co-founder, Sanctum Wealth Management. “Our view is that stability will return to financial markets. The recent spike in in gold prices is only on account of geopolitical volatility and will retreat soon,’’ he says.
Also, with the government imposing restrictions on cash transactions, savings are moving from physical assets to financial assets. So, retail investors who want to invest in gold should look at government of India’s gold bonds as they offer an additional coupon over and above the gold price, Bansal adds.
James advises gold exchange-traded funds which closely follow international prices and can be bought on the equity platform. “Going ahead, gold is likely to see yearly positive returns due to higher inflation expectations and oil price. When there is sustained price rise trend ETFs too will move higher. While gold price may not rise much by Akshaya Tritya, over the medium term I see support for gold price,’’ James adds.